It will be a busy week with lots of volatility: Personal Income, Pending Home Sales and Dallas Fed Manufacturing on Monday, Redbook, Case Shiller Home Prices and Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, Chicago PMI and Crude Inventories and Yellen speaking at 2PM on Wednesday, Jobless claims, PMI Manufacturing, ISM and Construction spending on Thursday and end of month window dressing, the big Jobs numbers, Factory Orders and a slew of fed squawkers on Friday. Should be interesting to say the least.
SPY has to get above 195 and 197.50 in order to attempt a break above 205.00.
I believe banks are key right now if JPM can get above $62.50. An increase in rates is helpful to banks, they can earn more money on their loans. But due to global uncertainly, and not just in China, JPM continues to support a bearish bias down to $32.
Crude is also weighing on indices, especially the SPY which is heavily weighted in energy.
If oil cannot get above $47.50 and continue upward, then a retest of the $40 level is in play, which could lead finally to the $30-20 price that traders have been concerned about all year long.
Say what you will, but in my opinion, the only CEO from the crisis that doesn't deserve jail (let alone cancer, but who does except maybe Rumsfeld or certain ex-husbands who will remain nameless...) is Blankfein, head of Goldman Sachs.
We find out today:
Business News | Tue Sep 22, 2015 1:27pm EDT
Goldman CEO Blankfein says has 'highly curable' form of cancer
Lloyd Blankfein, the chairman and chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs Group Inc, said on Tuesday he had a "highly curable" form of cancer and would be able to work mostly as normal during treatment.The
veteran Wall Street boss, who navigated the U.S. investment bank
through the financial crisis, told employees and shareholders he would
undergo chemotherapy for lymphoma over the next several months in New
The bank's shares
slid 2.6 percent to $178.56 after the surprise announcement, which puts
Goldman's succession plans under the spotlight, although the market was
Blankfein, 61, is undergoing treatment, other senior bank officials,
including his top deputy, Chief Operating Officer Gary Cohn, will assume
some of his responsibilities in dealing with the public, a person
familiar with the matter said.
who is seen as the most likely successor to Blankfein if he left his
post in the near future, replaced his boss at the last minute at a
public discussion in New York on Monday night.
firm has a number of long-serving senior executives, including Vice
Chairman Michael Sherwood, investment banking co-head David Solomon,
Chief Financial Officer Harvey Schwartz and Chief Strategy Officer
Stephen Scherr, who investors said offered stability.
culture of the firm transcends one person," said Mike Donnelly, senior
vice president and portfolio manager at CS McKee, which manages $10.5
billion and owns Goldman shares.
Blankfein has done a great job and embodies the culture, but in terms
of this changing the investment thesis given the valuation, no
statement, Blankfein said he underwent tests after not feeling well in
late summer. He did not disclose the type of lymphoma, a cancer that
affects the immune system, or how advanced it is.
received a final diagnosis on Monday around midday, and informed
Goldman's board of directors around 4 p.m. EDT (2000 GMT), the source
has led what is viewed as the most powerful U.S. investment bank since
2006, and bank executives say he has never hinted at when he might
retire or his plans after Goldman.
New Yorker is credited with helping to keep the firm afloat during the
financial crisis with an early decision to rein in exposure to risky
mortgage-backed securities and a successful appeal to Warren Buffett to
invest in the firm during the chaotic days after Lehman Brothers went
role in the U.S. housing bubble and the billions of dollars paid out in
bonuses to its top staffers have made the firm a magnet for popular
anger about Wall Street. Rolling Stone magazine once referred to the
firm as the "vampire squid" of finance.
a former chain-smoking gold trader, has helped improve the bank's
public image and make the transition from a pure investment bank to one
with a greater exposure to commercial lending.
No. 2, Cohn, has followed a similar career path as his boss. Like
Blankfein, Cohn got his start at commodities firm J. Aron & Co,
which Goldman then acquired. He has been COO as long as Blankfein has
been CEO and is 6 years younger.
life is a classic rags-to-riches story. Born in the South Bronx and
raised in a housing project in the East New York neighborhood of
Brooklyn, he worked his way through Harvard College and Harvard Law
School, helped by financial aid.
disclosure comes a little more than a year after JPMorgan Chase &
Co CEO Jamie Dimon said he had throat cancer. Dimon continued to lead
the bank during treatment.
Dimon wished his rival a fast recovery on Tuesday.
is cancer that begins in the lymphatic system, which is a part of the
immune system that carries away waste and transports white-blood cells
that attack disease. It can occur as Hodgkin lymphoma, which has a
five-year survival rate of about 86 percent, or non-Hodgkin lymphoma,
which has a five-year survival rate of about 70 percent.
Len Lichtenfeld, an oncologist who is deputy chief medical officer of
the American Cancer Society, said chemotherapy is the main treatment for
both Hodgkin and non-Hodgkin disease. Individuals in their 60s and 70s
are more likely to have the more common and harder-to-treat non-Hodgkin
variety of the blood cancer, which affects the body's infection-fighting
white blood cells, he said.
Depending on where enlarged lymph nodes are found, and their size, he said doctors may use radiation as well as chemotherapy.
are many people who are dealing with cancer every day," Blankfein said.
"I draw on their experiences as I begin my own. I have a lot of energy
and I'm anxious to begin the treatment."
(Reporting by Olivia Oran in New York and Richa Naidu in Bengaluru;
Additional reporting by Ransdell Pierson in New York; Editing by Dan Wilchins, Kirti Pandey and Jeffrey Benkoe)
Well, I pretty much nailed the high of the SPY a few weeks ago. I also said we could retest the lows.
Here we are: ON OUR WAY
Retail sales sucked today in Redbook.
Tsipras is AGAIN Prime Minister of bankrupt Greece.
China is too lackadaisical in its attempts at QE, according to the US anyway.
Market unable to build steam above its 200 day moving average due to the Feds inability to do something?
Need I say more??
I fully expect a retest of the low and a low of 1700 before all is said and done.
Some light reading:
Personally I think its all rubbish. The truth is Element Capital is trading in bonds just like every other HFT (including bankster scheisters). The swings are insane. The ES, ZB, and ZN all trade like CL right now. That is machines unwinding and winding positions, scalping here and there. Interest rates are just the excuse. Do not be fooled.
Hedge Fund Element Capital Is Dominating US Treasury Market
Element Capital Management, a hedge fund run by Jeffrey Talpins, is
yet another example of everything that is wrong on Wall Street today.
The issue here is not that Element is doing anything illegal or even
shady, but rather just another example of the "anything goes" attitude
that pervades U.S. financial markets. Taking advantage of a flawed
system is not "good business". It does not create GDP or employment, it
merely enriches Talpins and his investors and exacerbates the growing wealth inequality problem.
Apparently, Talpins is leveraging his $6 billion hedge fund to buy many times that amount of U.S. treasury notes and bonds at auctions, and then sell them back into the market again for a slight profit, often within just a few hours.
According to sources who spoke to Carolyn Cui and Gregory Zuckerman of the Wall Street Journal,
Element Capital has been the largest bidder in nearly all of the 62
Treasury note and bond auctions for the eight months between November
and July, these people said. At most of the auctions, many of which saw
$30 billion debt sold, Element purchased close 10% of the total issue.
Obviously, the Treasury Department wants to know the identity of
large-scale bond buyers because it prefers long-term holders such as
pension funds, insurance firms and central banks. Treasury officials
rightfully worry that large trades made by Hedge Funds will result in sales that artificially jack up treasury market volatility and potentially increase borrowing costs.
“If you’re issuing debt, your preference is those ‘sticky
investors,’” notes Scott Skyrm, a managing director at Wedbush
Analysts highlight that Element Capital is a “macro” fund that
invests in bond, stock and currency markets based on global
One of the WSJ sources said that Element had been shorting bonds in anticipation of higher interest rates, but has recently been unwinding that wager, requiring them to buy Treasurys.
Other sources close to the firm say there is another reason: Element Capital is one of the last hedge funds
that that still makes trades trying to make profit from the effects of
supply and demand in the Treasury market. It works because demand for
bonds goes up and down on factors such as perceptions of growth and
market risk, while supply is based on regular auctions of
different-maturity securities by the Treasury. Rather obviously, new
supply tends to slightly depress prices for short periods of time,
sometimes just for an hour or two.
Talpins is a trader formerly at Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS).
He has a reputation for an intense, self-centered personality that can
lead to clashes with rivals. He even tested the patience of ex-Federal
Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke by asking 10 consecutive questions in an
important meeting with the chairman and a number of other hedge fund
We opened at 196.26
Went to an intraday high of 198.05 on comments by Mario Draghi.
Then boredom set in and we made intraday low of 195.74.
We retrace to 196.47, and then back down again holding 195.50 but looking weak. It's anyone's guess into the close.
Well well well, seems I nailed it yesterday with that 190.40 call (yeah yeah 190.74, come on....).
Buying the dips is still in play. But retesting the lows is as well. Sorry to disappoint all you bulls out there, but indicators are still bearish. In fact, bearish for SPY all the way down to 153.00.
Now that would be a correction boys and girls.
For Thursdays Trading
8:30am Unemployment Claims
10:00am ISM Non-Manufacturing
10:30am Natty Gas
Well, a pictures worth a thousand words. The bounce at 190.73 went to close at 191.92.
Doesn't get any better than this. I nailed it at 190.40. If my 8 ball was working to the tee I wouldn't be wasting my time with this blog people......
Tomorrow should be interesting indeed:
Mortgage Applications at 7:00am
ADP Employment at 8:15am
Productivity Costs at 8:30am
Factory Orders at 10:00am
Crude Inventories at 10:30am
Beige Book at 2:00pm
You can't really see it on this chart so you'll have to trust me. If you use Think or Swim trading platform, you can see this gap waiting to be filled on the YTD Daily bar chart. The level is 190.40.
We could get a very healthy bounce off there or we could retest the lows of 181.92. The Federal Reserve and Jackson Hole speak holds the key. The market is becoming increasingly pissed off about the rhetoric. Caution is at a market premium.
So far the pullback is in play. I expect 195-192.50 or so then a turnaround back to 205. Not today of course, but things don't just continue skyward after a move like last week. A pullback and then further upside if the pullback stops and holds.
Barack Obama needs 34 Senate votes to prevent opponents from blocking a
nuclear deal with Iran. He has 31 senators in favor, after Sen. Jeff
Merkley announced support. "I believe the agreement ... is the best
available strategy to block Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon,"
Merkley said. The Hill (30 Aug.)
Caretaker government takes office in Greece A
caretaker government has been sworn in in Greece, tasked with running
the country until next month's election. Supreme Court President
Vasiliki Thanou-Christofilou has become interim prime minister. The
Finance Ministry has much to do to keep the nation in operation, Deputy
Finance Minister Trifon Alexiadis says.
Phillips 66 gets $4.48B investment from Berkshire A
Securities and Exchange Commission filing says Warren Buffett's
Berkshire Hathaway has bought a 10.8% stake worth $4.48 billion in
Phillips 66. The oil company's stock price has declined less than 1%
during a period in which oil prices have dropped more than half.Reuters (29 Aug.)
has fallen into recession after years of declining revenue from exports
because of lower commodity prices. The economy contracted 1.9% in the
second quarter, after shrinking 0.7% in Q1, according to government
statistics. President Dilma Rousseff is facing public anger in response
to austerity measures being implemented.Deutsche Welle (28 Aug)
Concern about China leaves Asian-Pacific markets down Worries that the Chinese government will shut down intervention in the stock market sent most Asian-Pacific markets falling Monday.
China's Shanghai Composite lost 0.8%. Japan's Nikkei 225 dropped 1.3%.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index added 0.3%. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 fell
1.1%. South Korea's Kospi edged up 0.2%. India's Sensex was down 0.5%. CNBC.com
Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer told participants at the Federal
Reserve Bank of Kansas City's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole,
Wyo., that inflation likely will rise to the central bank's annual
target of 2%. "Given the apparent stability of inflation expectations,
there is good reason to believe that inflation will move higher as the
forces holding inflation down -- oil prices and import prices,
particularly -- dissipate further," Fischer said. NYTimes.com (29 Aug)